October sales statistics helped make today an interesting day.
The morning started off cold and clear. The photo to the left is from in front of a listing we were just reshooting the photos for. The Mountain (Pikes Peak) seemed very pretty this morning.
Later in the morning we had our annual RE/MAX Supercharge event. I love the RE/MAX Satelite Network, it's one of the best professional education ideas I've ever seen, along with our internet based Agent Training On Demand.
I found Dave Liniger's (co-founder and chairman of RE/MAX International) comments on the market very sobering. It would seem everyone is in agreement that at least nationally, next year will be about like this year, off pace from past record years, but not slowing much, if any, more. It will stay a buyer's market, but prices are already reflecting most of the softness, and will likely not drop significantly further. He also pointed out that some areas in the country (such as San Diego) are experiencing closer to a 17 or 18 month supply of homes on the market. Ours is 8.9 months, which made me thankful for what we have, even though we are more used to 4-6 months.
Speaking of what we have, our own October statistics were released today, and they show (yawn) inventory up (though not by as much anymore) 12.5% over last October at 6,470 units, sales down 19.9% at 723 units, and median price (1/2 above, 1/2 below) down 4% at $205,000. The mean was down more, 7.8%, indicating fewer high end home sales skewing the numbers.
These are certainly not great numbers, but they could be a lot worse, and there are some bright spots among them.
1. October sales were actually up from September by 4%. That is not the usual seasonal pattern (or for that matter a large amount), and gives some reason for hope.
2. Inventory was down by almost the same amount as it dropped last year at this time, indicating we are not being flooded with new inventory.
3. The stock market practically crashed today (is that really a bright spot?), dropping almost 400 points. This in turned helped bonds, which ultimately helps mortgage rates. We might see those rates in the 5's yet!